Stat 150 – Introduction to Statistical Investigations – Fall 2009

 

Instructors:

            Dr. Jimmy Doi, 25-106, 756-2901, jdoi@calpoly.edu

                        Office hours: MTuWTh 2-3, and by appointment

            Dr. Allan Rossman, 25-102, 756-2861, arossman@calpoly.edu

                        Office hours: MW 8:30-9:30, TuTh 1-3, and by appointment

 

Texts:

Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown (SAGTU, 4th ed.), by Roxy Peck et al (eds.)

This is a collection of short essays describing applications of statistics.  The application areas range from law and medicine to business and recreation.  You will read about a criminal trial of an alleged serial murder, about predicting prices of wines, about assessing the effectiveness of school choice programs, about testing treatments for pregnant, HIV-positive African women, and much more.

Super Crunchers, by Ian Ayres

This book is a national bestseller.  Its sub-title is “Why Thinking-by-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart.”  The book uses many interesting examples and case studies to argue that the ability to make sense of massive amounts of data is crucial for success in the twenty-first century and that statistics is one of the most important and exciting professions to pursue.

 

Class meetings:

MTuWTh 10:10-11:00 in Statistics Studio Classroom (02-206)

 

Course webpage:       

http://statweb.calpoly.edu/arossman/stat150/

 

Overview: Statistics can be defined as the science of reasoning from data. Data and statistical reasoning abound in our everyday lives, and the discipline of statistics makes great contributions to the scientific enterprise and to many aspects of life in our technological society.  Statistics also offers very attractive career opportunities to students with strong quantitative, computer, communication, and teamwork skills.

 

This course will introduce you to the discipline of statistics and to the nature of statistical reasoning.  The course will also orient you to Cal Poly’s statistics program and aim to develop your skills in discussion, writing, presentation, and computing that should serve you well throughout your studies at Cal Poly.

 

Learning goals: Our goals are that by the end of this course you will develop your ability to:

  • Appreciate the role of statistics in the scientific enterprise and in everyday life.
  • Understand the process of statistical investigations, from the posing of questions and the collection of data through the analysis of data and presentation of results.
  • Comprehend fundamental concepts of statistics, such as variability, randomness and randomization, experiment, significance, sampling, bias, confidence.
  • Recognize the importance of sound data collection strategies.
  • Plan an effective data collection strategy to address a particular question.
  • Conduct preliminary analyses of data involving graphical and numerical techniques.
  • Use Minitab statistical software to perform basic analyses of data.
  • Critically read, summarize, and evaluate articles from popular media involving statistics.
  • Present clear arguments concerning statistical issues both orally and in writing.

 

Course materials: You should purchase the textbooks and a three-ring binder for storing and organizing handouts.  You must also have a scientific calculator and access to the internet and Minitab software access outside of class.  You can download Minitab (which runs on PC computers only) for free from the my.calpoly.edu portal following instructions available here.

 

Class policies: We strongly encourage you to prepare for and to participate in every class session.  Not only will this help you to learn the material and perform well in the course, but it will also produce a much more enjoyable learning environment for all of us.  Preparing for class will typically involve reading the essay in the book to be discussed that day and also starting and completing your assignments in a timely manner.  Participating in class will typically entail contributing to discussions and working on hands-on activities that we design to help you investigate and learn the material.  Some of these activities will ask you to work cooperatively with a partner or group.

 

Please make every effort to attend class and to arrive on time so as not to disrupt the learning of others.  Due to the interactive nature of the classroom learning environment, most students find that attending class regularly is essential to learning the material. Naturally, you are responsible for material covered and announcements made during classes that you miss.  Consult the course website, as well as your instructors and each other, to see what you have missed.

 

We also expect you to be polite in class.  Some ways to do this are:

  • Arrive to class on time. If you are late, enter quietly in order to minimize distractions.
  • Pay attention during class.  Do not read the newspaper or talk to your neighbor (unless we have asked you to work together).  We would much rather you interrupt us with a question than hold your own private conversation.  If you cannot stay awake, we would all be better served by your leaving quietly and catching up on your sleep.
  • Do not surf the web or check e-mail during class.  It’s fine to do this before class starts, but please give us your full attention when we begin class.
  • Do not allow your cell phone to ring or vibrate, and do not send or receive text messages.
  • Do not leave class early.
  • Participate in class discussions and activities to the best of your abilities.  Be willing to learn from your mistakes.

 

Grading policies: In order to give you a variety of opportunities to demonstrate your learning, your course grade will be determined by the following components, with relative weight as indicated:

  • Class participation (5%)

Your class participation will also be assessed based on the quality, in addition to the quantity, of the comments and questions that you contribute to our class discussions (of material and of readings) and activities.

  • Quizzes (10%)

Some quizzes will be given at the beginning of class to assess whether you completed and understood the assigned reading.  Other quizzes will occur at the end of class to assess whether you were attentive to that day’s discussion.  You may drop your lowest two quiz scores.

  • Assignments (15%)

Assignments will be given for most class periods.  Some assignments will involve analyzing data; others will consist of answering discussion questions.  Assignments will be posted here.  We prefer that you word-process your assignments, but hand-written is also acceptable.  Late assignments will only be accepted with a compelling reason.  No assignments will be dropped. 

  • Exam (20%)

We will have one exam in this class, during the last week of class on Tues, Dec. 1.  You may take a make-up exam only with a written medical excuse.  Be aware that the abilities to understand concepts, interpret results, explain reasoning, and communicate findings are more important than computational manipulations or rote memorization.

  • Project reports and presentations (50%)

As this course focuses on statistical investigations, our primary means of assessing your learning will be through project work.  You will complete many project assignments that will help you to learn statistical concepts and methods, as well as to develop your writing and oral communication skills.  Some projects culminate in written reports, some in oral presentations, some in both.  You will work on most of the projects with a partner (or two), although you will complete some of them individually.  Detailed expectations concerning the projects will be provided in advance (here).  A preliminary (subject to change) listing of project assignments follows:

1)      Human Development Trends (WR, OP; T): You will generate research questions concerning worldwide data on human development trends over decades, and then use dynamic graphical software to analyze data to address your questions.

2)      Debate (OP; T): You will participate in a debate arguing one viewpoint of an ethical issue involving statistics, trying to persuade others to your team’s position.

3)      Experiment / Comparison (WR, OP; T): You will devise a research question and design a study to address the question, then collect and analyze data to investigate the question. 

4)      Regression (WR, OP; T): You will generate a research question involving prediction, find multivariate data relevant to that question, and use regression techniques to analyze the data and develop a prediction model.

5)      Time Management (WR; I): You will collect data throughout the quarter on how you spend your time day-by-day, and then analyze the data to identify patterns and trends.

6)      Finding Findings (OP; I): You will select a news article that describes a statistical investigation of interest to you, and then find the original research article on which the news presentation was based. You will critique the news article presentation and apply what you have learned this quarter to summarize the statistical content of the research study.

 

Time management study: We ask that you collect data on your time management habits during every day of the quarter, including weekends and holidays.  We would like you to record data on five different variables, beginning on Monday, September 21 and ending on Sunday, November 22.  We will specify three of these variables, and you can choose the other two:

  • Coursework outside of class for STAT 150
  • Coursework outside of class for all of your courses
  • Sleep time

Please get in the habit of recording how much time you spend on each of these activities, and two more of your choosing, on a daily basis.  Record these times to the nearest quarter hour.  If you want to enter your data directly into a computer each day, record each day’s values in a separate row and keep a separate column for each of the five activities.  Please do NOT make up numbers just to complete the data collection task. Remember, the point of this exercise is to analyze how YOU actually spend time doing various tasks. It won't be informative at all to you if you make up data. For a day when you forgot to enter data, if you have a good guess in mind, then use that estimate. Otherwise, leave that day's entry blank.  You will be graded on the quality of your analysis and reflection on this assignment, not on how many hours you spend studying. 

 

Schedule: A detailed schedule of what we cover when, and which assignments are due when, will be maintained on our course webpage (here).  We will also make very clear announcements in class each day about what is coming up and what is due when.  This schedule will evolve as the quarter progresses, so be sure to check it often.  The following provides a sense for what we will cover and in what order, but even this broad outline is always subject to change:

Week

Dates

Topics

1

Sept 21 – 24

Introductions

2

Sept 28 – Oct 1

Graphics

3

Oct 5 – 8

Graphics (cont.)

4

Oct 12 – 15

Ethics

5

Oct 19 – 22

Ethics (cont.)

6

Oct 26 – 29

Experiments, Comparisons

7

Nov 2 – 5

Experiments, Comparisons (cont.)

8

Nov 9 – 10, 12

Regression Modeling

9

Nov 16 – 19

Regression Modeling (cont.)

10

Nov 23– 24

NO CLASSES

11

Nov 30 – Dec 3

Project Work

 

Advice: With apologies to David Letterman, we offer the following “Top Ten” suggestions to improve your learning in this course and throughout your college career:

1.      Come to class.  It is extremely important for you to attend every class meeting. The majority of class time will be devoted to group activities and discussions; we will not be lecturing much. Although much learning often takes place outside of the classroom, our classroom experiences set the stage for that learning to occur.

2.      Prepare for class.  Of course your attendance in class is of limited value if you have not prepared for class. Please read the assigned material for class so that you can contribute meaningfully to the discussion. You should find the textbook to be very readable and much less technical than most statistics books. You should also start assignments several days before the due date so that you may ask questions during class and in office hours, as well as reflect on the relevant material as it is discussed in class.

3.      Participate in class.  In addition to preparing for class and coming to class, we ask you to participate constructively in class. Since most class time will consist of group discussions, please feel free to take part enthusiastically.

4.      Ask questions.  Please feel free to ask questions during class.  This includes questions that arise from your reading, because we will not attempt to present all of the material that you read about.  It also includes questions that come to mind based on class activities and discussions.  Rest assured that if you ask a question, the answer will probably benefit many students in addition to yourself.

5.      Defend your arguments.  You will find that there are not sharp distinctions between right and wrong answers for many of the issues that we will discuss. This does not mean, however, that all arguments are equally valid. What matters is the degree to which you defend your position with supporting evidence.

6.      Work together.  We think you will find that you can learn a great deal from your peers. Some of your assignments will ask you to work together in pairs or teams, but feel free to ask for advice from your peers at other times as well. When you are asked to comment on a peer’s work, please make constructive suggestions. Please show courtesy and respect for others’ views and their right to express them. Feel free to criticize the arguments of others, but do so on substantive grounds and present evidence to defend your own position.  Take advantage of the opportunity to see topics from several viewpoints.

7.      Put in time outside of class.  You may not have needed to devote much time outside of class to succeed in high school.  This course, and almost all college courses, requires you to make a substantial commitment outside of class.  You are expected to devote 2-3 hours per week outside of class for every course unit, so you should invest 8-12 hours per week outside of class for this course.  You have probably already seen signs on campus encouraging you to study for 25-35 hours per week; this really is sound advice but will require good time management across all your classes.  It is very important that you keep on top of things and do not fall behind.

8.      Use office hours.  Please come to visit us during office hours.  You may come with specific questions or general ones.  You may bring questions about an assignment, questions about something mentioned in class, or questions about anything at all.  Feel free to stop by at times other than office hours as well.  You will also find e-mail to be an efficient way of communicating questions to us.

9.      Have fun!  We sincerely hope that you will enjoy both the subject matter of the course and the learning process.  By all means you should try to enjoy the readings and discussions. We also hope that you will enjoy our class discussions and participate in them enthusiastically.

10.  Think!!  Please be prepared to open your mind as you investigate new ideas and think about familiar ones from new perspectives.

 

A common theme emerges from these suggestions: You are responsible for your own learning. We see our responsibilities as your instructors as providing you with an environment rich with activities, discussions, and feedback that foster your learning experience. Please be aware that you have a number of resources to support you in this endeavor. Please call on us to assist you with your learning as much as we can.