Stat 221 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Fall 2008
Exam 1 Preparation
- Logistical
details
- Tuesday,
October 14
- 50
minutes
- Open-book,
open-notes
- Calculator
needed
- Coverage
- Topics
1-6, 11, handouts on statistical significance, expected value and variance,
binomial distributions
- Notes
from days 1-15
- Quizzes
1-9
- Investigations
1-3
- Resources
available online
- This
preparation sheet
- Day-by-day
notes, handouts
- Quiz
solutions
- Investigation
solutions
- Optional
assignments, solutions (via Blackboard)
- Types
of questions to expect
- Short
answer (e.g., identifying types of
variables, distinguishing observational studies from experiments)
- Calculations
(e.g., conditional proportions, expected values)
- Interpretations
and explanations (e.g., interpreting a p-value, explaining why a sampling
method is biased)
§
Possibly of computer output
- Similar
to in-class examples, quizzes, investigations, optional assignments
- Advice
for preparing
- Prepare
and organize your notes carefully
- Don’t
study less because it’s open-notes/book
- Plan
not to rely on your notes/book too much
- Re-read
the day-by-day notes
- Re-read
highlighted passages, watch-out, wrap-up sections of book
- Focus
on understanding, not memorization
- Review
and make sure that you can answer the quiz, investigation, optional
assignment questions
- Ask
questions during review class session, office hours
- Advice
during the exam
- Show
up on time!
- Be
cognizant of time constraint
- Read
carefully
- Relate conclusions to
context
- Write and explain
clearly
- Do
not elaborate excessively
- Show
details of calculations
- Take
advantage of partial information
Outline (of most
important topics)
- Observational
unit, variable
- Categorical
vs. quantitative
- Explanatory
vs. response
- Population,
sample
- Parameter,
statistic
- Two
key questions
- To
what population can results be generalized?
- Depends
on how data were collected (e.g., random sample?)
- Can
a cause/effect conclusion be drawn?
- Depends
on how subjects got into groups (e.g., random assignment?)
- Sampling
- Bias
- Random
sampling
- Effect
of sample size
- Types
of studies
- Observational
studies vs. controlled experiments
- How
to distinguish
- Scope
of conclusions
- Designing
experiments
- Comparison
- Control
group
- Placebo
effect
- Blindness
- Randomization
- Bar
graph, dotplot
- Tendency
(center)
- Consistency
(spread)
- Two-way
tables
- Segmented
bar graph
- 2×2
tables
- Marginal
distributions
- Conditional
proportions
- Relative
risk
- Statistical
significance
- Reasoning
process
- Null
model
- Simulation
- P-value
- For
binary outcomes (e.g., helper/hinderer)
- For
2×2 tables (e.g., dolphin therapy)
- Interpretation:
long-term relative frequency
- Approximation
through simulation
- Calculations
- Sample
space
- Equal
likeliness
- Expected
value
- Interpretation:
long-run average value
- Approximation
through simulation
- Calculation
from probability distribution
- Decision
applications
- Variance,
standard deviation
- Binomial
distribution
- Four
conditions
- Expected
value
- Calculations