STAT 301    Statistics I    Winter 2011

Instructor: Allan Rossman
Class Times: MTuWTh 10:10-11:00, room 02-206 (Statistics Studio Classroom)
Office: Faculty Office Building East 25-102
Phone: 805-756-2861
Email: arossman@calpoly.edu
Office Hours: M 2:30-4:30, Tu 8:30-9:30, W 2:30-4:30, Th 2:30-3:30, and by appointment, and by chance
Teaching Assistant: Julia Maddalena

Text: Investigating Statistical Concepts, Applications, and Methods*, by Chance and Rossman

* Dr. Chance and I will be writing a second draft of the 2^nd edition as our course progresses. Instead of asking you to buy the current edition, we will make draft chapters and sections available to you as pdf files via Blackboard as the quarter progresses.

Course Webpage: http://statweb.calpoly.edu/arossman/stat301/

Overview: Statistics is the science of reasoning from data.  It is both an exciting intellectual discipline and a powerful scientific tool.  Statistics is a mathematical science, in the sense that it makes use of mathematics extensively, but it is not a branch of mathematics.  This course will introduce you to fundamental concepts and methods of statistics.  Some of the key ideas to be studied include data collection strategies and their scopes of conclusion, the role of randomness in collecting data and drawing conclusions, graphical and numerical summaries of data, assessing statistical significance, and estimating with confidence.

I like to believe, and I’ll try to demonstrate to you, that statistics is both an extremely important discipline in today’s world and also a very exciting one. Consider the following quote from Hal Varian, chief economist for Google, taken from an October 2008 interview (available here):

“I keep saying the sexy job in the next ten years will be statisticians…. The ability to take data – to be able to understand it, to process it, to extract value from it, to visualize it, to communicate it – that’s going to be a hugely important skill in the next decades, not only at the professional level but even at the educational level for elementary school kids, for high school kids, for college kids. Because now we really do have essentially free and ubiquitous data. So the complementary scarce factor is the ability to understand that data and extract value from it.”

Goals: By the conclusion of the course, I hope that you have improved your ability to:

• apply and interpret the results of a variety of statistical techniques, including both descriptive and inferential methods;
• understand many of the fundamental ideas of statistics, such as variability, distribution, association, causation, sampling, experimentation, confidence, and significance;
• analyze and assess statistical arguments, such as those found in the popular press as well as in scholarly publications;
• use computer software both to analyze data and to explore statistical ideas;
• communicate your knowledge of statistical ideas effectively.

More specific goals are that you will be able to:

• understand the difference between observational studies and controlled experiments and the scope of conclusions that each permits;

· conduct and interpret descriptive analyses of data, including graphical and numerical summaries, for categorical and quantitative data;

· understand fundamental concepts of statistical inference, such as confidence and significance, including limitations of these procedures;

· conduct and interpret tests of significance, including Fisher’s exact test, binomial tests, z-tests for a proportion and difference in proportions, and t-tests for a mean and difference in means;

· produce and interpret confidence intervals.

Course Materials: My colleague and I are writing a new edition of the textbook. We will make this available to you as pdf files through Blackboard as the quarter progresses. I strongly encourage you to print out the relevant sections and bring them to class.

You should obtain a three-ring binder for organizing your handouts and notes.  You will find that these handouts consist of activities as well as exposition, so you can take notes directly on these handouts. I strongly encourage you to print these out before class, although another option is to follow along on the computer during class. You must also have a scientific calculator and access to the internet and to the statistical software package R outside of class.  You might find it helpful to bring a USB drive to every class session so you can save your computer work. 

Computer Use: We will make fairly extensive use of computers in this course. They will prove useful in at least three ways:

• for performing calculations and creating graphics necessary for analyzing data
• for conducting simulations to approximate long-run behavior of random phenomena
• for addressing “what if” questions that allow you to explore statistical concepts

We will make frequent use of Java applets and the statistical analysis packages Minitab and R. You will have the option on assignments of using either Minitab or R. No prior knowledge of these software tools is assumed; you will receive detailed instructions regarding their use when the need arises. R is freely available software that you can download for your own computer (following instructions here); R is also available in our Studio classroom and in the library.  Minitab is also freely available (download instructions are here) because Cal Poly has a site license for this software, but it only runs on PC computers. Minitab is also available in our Studio classroom and in the library. The Java applets can be accessed and run through any java-enabled web browser.

Data files and Java applets will be available from a link here on our course webpage.

Classroom Culture: Most class meetings will consist of some lecture but also your working through activities through which you discover and explore statistical ideas and techniques.  Please come to class prepared and willing (eager?!) to work during class time and to collaborate with your peers and to ask questions of me.  This will not only help you to learn the material and perform well in the course, but it will also produce a much more enjoyable learning environment for all of us.  Class attendance is very strongly encouraged, as the in-class activities should prove to be valuable learning experiences.  Information about what we do in class each day will be compiled here. Needless to say, you are responsible for everything presented in class.

I also expect you to devote substantial outside-of-class time to your work for this course, typically involving 8-12 hours per week.  I anticipate that this work will be divided among:

• finishing in-class activities
• reviewing your notes
• working on assignments
• conducting project work
• preparing for exams

Please be courteous to your classmates, for example by:

• arriving to class on time (but if you are late, please enter without disrupting class);
• printing handouts ahead of time on your own (please do not use the printers in our classroom for this purpose);
• not talking to others when I am talking (but please do talk to your neighbors when working on collaborative activities);
• not allowing your cell phone to ring or send text messages during class (or else you are to bring cookies for everyone to the next class session);
• stapling pages together when you hand in a multi-page assignment (to minimize the chance that I lose a page or get them mixed up);
• including your name when you send me an e-mail message (it’s often impossible to discern your name from an e-mail address).

Grading Policies: Your course grade will be determined by the following components, with relative weights as indicated:

• quizzes (5%)
• assignments (15%)
• project (15%)
• two midterm exams (15% for lower score; 20% for higher score)
• final exam (30%)

Quizzes: During many class periods you will be asked to answer a few short questions. Some of these questions will be asked at the beginning of class, to assess how well you understood concepts presented in the previous class; others will be asked at the end of class to assess your understanding of what was presented that day. You may work with one partner on these mini-quizzes. You may drop your lowest three of these scores from the calculation of your overall average.

Assignments: Homework assignments will be given regularly, almost daily. These assignments will be posted here, but no hard copies will be distributed.  Assignments are due at the beginning of class on the indicated day; late assignments will not be accepted.  You may work with one partner on these assignments, submitting one report with both names, provided that both of you contribute substantially to the work. You may drop the lowest two of your homework scores from the calculation of your overall average.  I hope that these assignments will:

• to give you the problem-solving practice necessary to learn, understand, and apply the concepts and techniques presented,
• to provide you with feedback regarding your understanding of the material,
• to further your discovery and exploration of course material, and
• to prepare you for the kinds of questions that will be on the exams.

Project: The project assignment will provide another way to demonstrate that you have learned important concepts and skills related to collecting and analyzing data to address interesting research questions. You will generate a research question that can be addressed with a randomized experiment, collect and analyze relevant data, and write a detailed report of your findings. Detailed expectations will be provided here.

Exams: There will be two mid-term exams and a final exam.  Dates will be announced at least one week in advance.  You may be excused from an exam only with a written medical excuse.  The final exam will focus on more recent material but will also have a cumulative component.  These exams will be open-book and open-notes.  You will be provided with preparation advice (here) before each exam.  One thing to keep in mind is that interpretations and explanations will be as important as calculations.

Study Hints: I offer the following very simple but often ignored pieces of advice for your consideration:

• Come to class.
• Participate in class.
• Help each other.
• Ask questions.
• Review your notes.
• Don’t get behind.
• Write well.
• Have fun with the material.
• Take pride in your work.
• Think!

A common theme emerges from this list: You are responsible for your own learning. As your instructor, I view my role as providing you with contexts and opportunities that facilitate the learning process. Please call on me to help you with this learning in whatever ways I can.

Schedule: Consult the day-by-day notes (here) frequently to see what we have covered and when. You can also refer to the expanded course outline (here) for more information about course objectives and material to be covered.