Defining Probability
Definition:The probability of a random event occurring is in the long-run proportion (or relative frequency) of times that the event would occur if the random process were repeated over and over under identical conditions. You can approximate a probability by simulating the process many times. Simulation leads to an empirical estimate of the probability, which is the proportion of times that the event occurs in the simulated repetitions of the random process. |
So when we say the probability of zero matches equals .375, that means, if you repeatedly return babies to their mothers, under identical conditions, then in the long-run (thousands and thousands of trials of returning the babies to the moms at random) we expect to see the outcome of none of the mothers receiving her own baby to occur in about 37.5% of the trials.
