Stat 301 – Statistics I

Instructor: Beth Chance

Class Time: M, T, R, F 10:10-11:00, Studio Classroom (02-206)

Office: Faculty Office Building East 25-103

Phone: 756-2961 (×62961 on campus)

Email: bchance@calpoly.edu (a very good way to reach me)

Office Hours: Mon 2:30-4:30, Tues 11-12, Wed 1-2, Thur 2-3, Fri 11-12pm (in 35-111B),

by email, by appointment, and anytime my door is open

Course Webpages: Blackboard (http://my.calpoly.edu)

http://statweb.calpoly.edu/bchance/stat301F08/

http://www.rossmanchance.com/iscam/files.html

Course Listserv: stat-301-01-2088@calpoly.edu   

Prerequisite: Math 142

Course Objectives: To gain an understanding of statistical principles and their uses. This course addresses issues in data collection, including sampling and experimental designs, graphical and numerical techniques for exploring and modeling data, and statistical inference. You will learn how to make inferences from samples to populations, between treatment groups in an experiment, and about relationships between variables.

Texts/Materials:

Required: Investigating Statistical Concepts, Applications, and Methods (ISCAM)

Chance and Rossman (2006), Cengage, first edition

It is very important that you bring the book to every class meeting, and you are encouraged to write directly in your book. You should also have a USB drive, a scientific calculator, an email address, and a large three-ring binder. You will need access to Minitab, Excel and the internet outside of class. Additional lecture handouts will be supplied in class, you are responsible for receiving and keeping these materials. Powerpoint slides and handouts from previous lectures will be available on the course web pages.

Statistical Package/Calculators: We will be using the Minitab (version 15) software package for data analysis and exploration, as well as Excel. You will be given instructions for how to use Minitab, Excel, and java applets as needed for this course. You will need access to Minitab (or R or StatCrunch) and Excel outside of class. See the Computer Instructions handout and online materials. You are also encouraged to use a scientific calculator.

Grading:

Practice problems 5%

In class activities/participation 5%

Homework 15%

Labs 10%

Three Mini-projects 15%

Two exams 30% (15% each)

Final exam 20%

Coursework:

· Practice problems will be assigned to be completed between class periods to serve as informal checks of your understanding of that day’s material. To receive credit (0, 1 or 2 pts, tentatively out of 60 pts), your solutions need to be submitted in Blackboard or by email by 9am. Earlier submissions (e.g., by 9pm) are more likely to receive individual feedback. Solutions will be posted online, and you are encouraged to email questions on these items to course alias.

· Class participation You may also be asked to complete investigations between classes and/or start investigations between classes (solutions are posted in Blackboard). The quality and quantity of your discussion of these ideas in class, and how will you are participating in the in-class activities and asking questions on the material will help form your participation scores.

· Homework problems will be assigned roughly once per week. You will generally have one week to complete the assignments. The intention is for you to work on this assignment throughout the week. If you wait until the evening before, you will not have enough time to complete the assignment. You are encouraged to work with other people in the class and to submit questions to the course alias, but the work you turn in must be your own. Homework assignments are due at the beginning of class on the day due. No late homework assignments will be accepted. You will be allowed to drop your lowest homework grade.

· Lab assignments are more involved and typically require use of the computer. You are encouraged to work together in pairs on these assignments, turning in one word-processed report with both of your names. Evaluation of the labs will include quality of presentation (style, readability, grammar, spelling), discussion, and output. Details for individual labs will be provided. No late lab assignments will be accepted.

· There will be 3 data collection/analysis mini-projects. You will be asked to collect data and then use the techniques discussed in class to analyze the data. You will be asked to work in groups of 2-3 people and it is the group’s responsibility to make sure everyone participates equally. Reports will be graded on originality of topic, quality of the written report, quality of data collection methods, correctness of statistical methods, and appropriateness of interpretation and conclusions. Each person’s grade will be 75% group grade and 25% individual grade. Individual grades will be determined by the instructor and team member evaluations.

Exams: There will be two in class exams and one comprehensive final. Graded exams will be returned in class or can be picked up from the instructors

Study Hints: It is important that you spend this time wisely and that you ask for help early when you are struggling. My top ten list of advice (see below for more explanation):

1. Come to class.

2. Participate in class.

3. Work together.

4. Ask questions.

5. Review your notes.

6. Check the course webpage and email list regularly.

7. Start the assignments early.

8. Take the course seriously.

9. Have fun with the material.

10. Think!

More advice: Fall, 2007 student responses to the question: “What advice would you give to a future student as they begin Stat 301?”

· Do practice problems on Blackboard

· Do all the work well, it will make you understand the material and do well on the exams

· Do practice problems

· Take your own notes to organize things

· The book makes it hard to find anything because stuff is in the investigations and such

· Try to understand what the processes do and why you should do them

· Practice problems, get familiar with procedures

· Do the practice problems, understand everything

· If it seems easy, don’t slack and fall behind or else you will have a much harder time

· Do the practice problems!

· Give ample time to do homework assignments each week

· Do the practice problems

· Do as many practice problems as you can, they help

· Start homework ahead of time!

· In class time is the most important

· Keep up with all the practice problems; don’t be afraid to email to ask question and/or go into office hours frequently

· Make sure you understand everything at the beginning of class/quarter. If you don’t you’ll be lost forever. Also, write the answers in the book in a very detailed manner so when you go back, you know how you did it.

Above all, you are responsible for your own learning. As your instructor, my role is providing you with contexts and opportunities to facilitate the learning process. Please call on me to help you with this learning in whatever ways I can.

Stat 301 - Tentative Schedule

Day	Date	Investigations	Topic	HW Due
Comparing Treatment Groups
M	9/22	Prologue	Introduction	BB survey
T	9/23	1.1.1	Summarizing categorical data	Inv 1.1.1 (a)-(c)
R	9/25	1.2.1-2	Analyzing categorical data	PP 1.1.1, 1.1.2
F	9/26	1.3.1-2	Confounding	PP 1.2.2, HW 1
M	9/29	1.4.1-2	Designing experiments
T	9/30	1.5.1	Statistical significance	Lab 1
R	10/2	1.6.1	Probability	MP 1 Proposal
F	10/3	1.6.2	Counting methods, start 1.7.1 (start 1.7.1)	HW 2
M	10/6	1.7.1-2	Fisher’s Exact Test, Normal approximation
T	10/7	2.1.1-2	Summarizing quantitative data
R	10/9	2.1.3	Summarizing quantitative data (cont.)	Mini-project 1
F	10/10	2.1.4-5	Variability
M	10/13	2.2.1	Statistical significance	Lab 2 (MCI)
T	10/4	2.2.2-3	Statistical significance (cont.), t approximation
R	10/16		Review	HW 3
F	10/17		Exam 1, Ch. 1 and 2
Inference from Samples to Population
M	10/20	3.1.1	Sampling from Populations, Processes (RP)
T	10/21	4.1.1-2	Models of quantitative data
R	10/23	4.2.1, Ex 4.2	Normal probability model
F	10/24	4.3.1	Sampling distributions	HW 4
M	10/27	4.3.2	Central Limit Theorem
T	10/28	4.3.3	Tests of Significance	Lab 3 (3.1.2)
R	10/30	4.3.5	Confidence Intervals
F	10/31	4.3.4	Interpreting CIs, types of error	HW 5
M	11/3	4.3.6	Alternative procedures
T	11/4	4.4.1	Distributions of sample means	Lab 4 (Ex 4.3)
R	11/6	4.4.2	t distribution
F	11/7	4.4.3	t procedures	HW 6
M	11/10	4.4.4	Paired comparisons
T	11/11		No Class – Veterans’ Day	Lab 5 (Ex 4.4)
R	11/13		Review
F	11/14		Exam 2, Ch. 3 and 4
M	11/17	4.5.1-2	Bootstrapping	Mini-project 2
Comparing Samples
T	11/18	5.1.1-2	Comparing population proportions
R	11/20	5.2.1	Comparing categorical treatments
F	11/21	5.3.1	Comparing population means
M	11/24	5.3.2, 3	Comparing population means (cont.)
T	11/25	5.4.1	Comparing quantitative treatments	HW 7
R	11/27		No Class – Happy Thanksgiving!
F	11/28
M	12/1	5.1.3	Inference for Odds Ratios
T	12/2	5.5.1	Comparing groups
R	12/4		Presentations
F	12/5		Review	HW 8
M	12/8		Final Exam, 10:10-1:00	Mini-Project 3
T	12/9		Final Exam, 10:10-1:00

Detailed Advice

1. Come to class. Student evaluations reinforce my conviction that there is no substitute for attending class, seeing and hearing the material and examples presented, and having the chance to ask questions and to practice problems. I do present some material that is not covered in the text and cover some material in different ways than the text, as well. Finally, you can often pick up hints and advice about studying and about homework problems from attending class.

2. Participate in class. Coming to class only contributes to your learning if you are willing to participate actively. During many class periods you will be asked to work on activities designed to help you learn the material and to explore the concepts and methods of probability and statistics. Please engage yourself fully with these activities.

3. Work together. Many of the in-class activities will ask you to work collaboratively with your peers. Please do so freely, as I believe that you will be able to help each other with your learning. I also encourage you to work and study together outside of class. Just remember that unless specified otherwise, solutions to homework problems are to be written up individually.

4. Ask questions. Please do not hesitate to ask questions when you don’t understand something presented in class or on a homework problem. Don’t necessarily wait until after class or during office hours; you can ask questions during class time as well. Feel free to give me other sorts of feedback as well: whether the pace is too fast or slow, etc.

5. Review your notes. My intention is to enable you to put together a very extensive and useful set of class notes. I urge you to keep thorough notes and to review them often, particularly before starting homework assignments and while studying for exams.

6. Check the course webpage and email list regularly. Many students often have similar questions and additional insights that you can learn from. This is a good place to check for late breaking news and late night inspirations.

7. Start the assignments early. You will usually be given at least one week to complete each assignment. Please avoid the temptation to put the assignments off until the last day; you should start early enough to be able to ask questions when they arise. It is also helpful to have the homework problems in mind when we cover the relevant material in class. Keep in mind that the material in this course builds cumulatively over the course of the quarter.

8. Take the course seriously. This course should not be approached casually. One aspect of the course is that you will have to do a fair bit of writing, explaining and presenting your results. It is important to practice the terminology and concepts frequently. I will be fairly demanding of your work under the belief this will improve your overall understanding and performance.

9. Have fun with the material. This may seem to contradict the previous point, but I do think that statistics is a very fun, entertaining subject. We will be analyzing genuine data from a variety of real-world applications and diverse disciplines. Allow yourself to enjoy these aspects of the course, and feel free to suggest other applications that appeal to you.

10. Think! Do not treat the course as an exercise in mere “plug-and-chug” number-crunching, and do not try to apply formulas by rote to solve problems. (That’s not what statistics is about!) Think about what you are doing, recognizing that there are often several ways to solve a problem and that one clever thought might eliminate the need for pages of painful calculations. Use your intuitive sense to check your results.